{"id":7470,"date":"2021-09-26T20:05:05","date_gmt":"2021-09-26T19:05:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mondayhappymonday.com\/prospectiva-prediccion-planificacion-y-otras-chicas-del-monton\/"},"modified":"2021-09-26T20:07:57","modified_gmt":"2021-09-26T19:07:57","slug":"prospectiva-prediccion-planificacion-y-otras-chicas-del-monton","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mondayhappymonday.com\/en\/prospectiva-prediccion-planificacion-y-otras-chicas-del-monton\/","title":{"rendered":"PROSPECTIVA, PREDICCI\u00d3N, PLANIFICACI\u00d3N&#8230; Y OTRAS CHICAS DEL MONT\u00d3N"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Hace unos d\u00edas que he empezado a profundizar en uno de los temas que m\u00e1s me apasiona: el\u00a0<strong>Futuro<\/strong>, de la mano de Jordi Serra del Pino, prospectivista y especialista en Future Studies. M\u00e1s all\u00e1 de lo que me apasiona, considero que pronosticar el futuro e innovar guardan grandes relaciones.<\/p>\n<p>Una de las frases que m\u00e1s me ha llamado la atenci\u00f3n leyendo sobre el tema es la de\u00a0<strong>Bertrand de Jouvenel<\/strong>, polit\u00f3logo y economista franc\u00e9s, escritor polifac\u00e9tico, diplom\u00e1tico, profesor de varias universidades\u00a0y considerado el mayor exponente de la filosof\u00eda pol\u00edtica. \u00c9l dec\u00eda lo siguiente:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u00a0\u201cSi el futuro est\u00e1 prefijado, entonces podemos llegar a conocerlo. Pero si lo conocemos anticipadamente lo podemos cambiar y si podemos cambiarlo, entonces ya no lo conocemos.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Las predicciones tratan de averiguar qu\u00e9 pasar\u00e1 en el futuro, pero si Jouvenel ten\u00eda raz\u00f3n, entonces no nos sirven porque si bien nos permitir\u00edan conocer el futuro y cambiarlo, si lo cambiamos ya no lo conoceremos y, por tanto, no podremos influir en \u00e9l.<\/p>\n<p>Las predicciones se centran en saber qu\u00e9 pasar\u00e1, pero se quedan cortas en el hecho que no explican\u00a0<strong>el c\u00f3mo y el porqu\u00e9<\/strong>\u00a0de los sucesos, que es lo realmente \u00fatil en la innovaci\u00f3n. Pero para eso est\u00e1 la prospectiva.<\/p>\n<p>La prospectiva se basa, no en predecir, sino en\u00a0<strong>pronosticar\u00a0<\/strong>trabajando, al igual que en la toma de decisiones, con\u00a0<strong>probabilidades\u00a0<\/strong>de que puedan suceder cosas distintas (recordad que\u00a0<strong>el futuro menos probable es aquel en el que nada cambia<\/strong>)<\/p>\n<p>Veamos un ejemplo: Es muy distinto afirmar que &#8220;ma\u00f1ana llover\u00e1&#8221; que decir &#8220;existe un 80% de probabilidades de que ma\u00f1ana llueva&#8221;. En el primer caso, estamos limitando el gran abanico de posibilidades, como lo hace la predicci\u00f3n, mientras que en el segundo, no podemos pasar por alto que, a pesar de que un 20% no sea una probabilidad alta, puede ser que no llueva, como as\u00ed lo har\u00eda la prospectiva<\/p>\n<p>Estar ante diferentes posibilidades nos sit\u00faa ante un futuro lleno de alternativas, lo que la prospectiva denomina futuros alternativos. Ello es muy importante porque:<\/p>\n<p>1.- El ser humano es\u00a0<strong>libre\u00a0<\/strong>de escoger entre ellos (el libre albedr\u00edo de Spinoza -esto ya roza la filosof\u00eda&#8230;-)<\/p>\n<p>2.- Adquirimos una buena\u00a0<strong>capacidad de reacci\u00f3n ante el futuro mejor y m\u00e1s r\u00e1pida<\/strong>\u00a0porque hemos desarrollado la habilidad de pensar en posibles alternativas, como hizo Sully antes del accidente de su avi\u00f3n en el r\u00edo Hudson.<\/p>\n<p>Supongo que a estas alturas del post ya te ha quedado claro que predicci\u00f3n y prospectiva no es lo mismo, pero \u00bfQu\u00e9 hay de la planificaci\u00f3n? Mientras la prospectiva busca influir en el futuro a\u00a0<strong>medio y largo plazo<\/strong>, la planificaci\u00f3n lo hace en el presente (corto plazo) y los objetivos no son m\u00e1s que la excusa para ordenar una acci\u00f3n actual.<\/p>\n<p>Y para acabar, la prospectiva, respecto de la\u00a0<strong>estrategia<\/strong>, es el\u00a0<strong>mapa de las alternativas\u00a0<\/strong>que tenemos ante nosotros. La prospectiva puede revelarnos qu\u00e9 nos depara el camino, pero la organizaci\u00f3n precisa de la estrategia para poder\u00a0<strong>decidir cu\u00e1l es la ruta m\u00e1s adecuada\u00a0<\/strong>para ella.<\/p>\n<p>Ahora ya conoces la diferencia entre prospectiva, predicci\u00f3n, planificaci\u00f3n y estrategia, todas ellas imprescindibles en las organizaciones, pero totalmente distintas.<\/p>\n<p>Si nos sigues, en el pr\u00f3ximo post descubrir\u00e1s la gran desconocida prospectiva y cuando lo hagas seguro que querr\u00e1s utilizarla en tu organizaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hace unos d\u00edas que he empezado a profundizar en uno de los temas que m\u00e1s me apasiona: el\u00a0Futuro, de la mano de Jordi Serra del Pino, prospectivista y especialista en Future Studies. M\u00e1s all\u00e1 de lo que me apasiona, considero que pronosticar el futuro e innovar guardan grandes relaciones. Una de las frases que m\u00e1s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7466,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,43,3],"tags":[323,226,816,399,817,818,819,112,820,821,822],"class_list":["post-7470","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-innovation","category-trends","category-work-methodologies","tag-designthinking-en","tag-designsprint-en","tag-experiencedesign-en","tag-future-en","tag-futuredesign-en","tag-futurethinking-en","tag-humancentrisme-en","tag-innovation-en","tag-prospectiva-en","tag-servicedesign-en","tag-strategy-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>PROSPECTIVA, PREDICCI\u00d3N, PLANIFICACI\u00d3N... 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